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Naft Gachsaran vs Mes Kerman — Azadegan League 2018

Naft Gachsaran
Naft Gachsaran
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Mes Kerman
Mes Kerman
11/8/2025Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 11

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Naft Gachsaran33%
×Draw36%
Mes Kerman31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Naft Gachsaran
0.78
Mes Kerman
0.76

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 50 home / 115 away

creates per match

Naft Gachsaran
0.86
Mes Kerman
0.78

allows per match

Naft Gachsaran
0.74
Mes Kerman
0.70

finishing

Naft Gachsaran+0.00on par
Mes Kerman+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Under
  • Under80
  • Over20

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

71%No
  • No71
  • Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naft Gachsaran ↓

Mes Kerman →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–021%
0–116%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–15%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (21%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
79%21%1.5
46%54%2.5
20%80%3.5
7%93%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Naft Gachsaran or draw
69%
Naft Gachsaran or Mes Kerman
64%
Draw or Mes Kerman
67%

Winning margin

Naft Gachsaran wins by 2+
10%
Mes Kerman wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Naft Gachsaran 1+ goals
54%
Naft Gachsaran 2+ goals
18%
Naft Gachsaran 3+ goals
4%
Mes Kerman 1+ goals
53%
Mes Kerman 2+ goals
18%
Mes Kerman 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Naft Gachsaran (draw refunded)
51%
Mes Kerman (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
16%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naft Gachsaran at home — creates 0.86, concedes 0.74 · 50 matches

Mes Kerman away — creates 0.78, concedes 0.70 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naft Gachsaran attack 0.86 + Mes Kerman defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.78

Mes Kerman attack 0.78 + Naft Gachsaran defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 33%?"

Naft Gachsaran scores more
33%
level
36%
Mes Kerman scores more
31%

Naft Gachsaran at 33% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 33% does not mean "Naft Gachsaran will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Naft Gachsaran vs Mes Kerman

Naft Gachsaran beat Mes Kerman 2-1 in Azadegan League on November 8, 2025.