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Naft Gachsaran vs Khooshe Talaee Saveh — Azadegan League 2018

Naft Gachsaran
Naft Gachsaran
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Khooshe Talaee Saveh
Khooshe Talaee Saveh
9/3/2023Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 1Naft Gachsaran Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Naft Gachsaran40%
×Draw33%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Naft Gachsaran
1.00
Khooshe Talaee Saveh
0.76

Naft Gachsaran creates 32% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 84 away

creates per match

Naft Gachsaran
0.86
Khooshe Talaee Saveh
0.77

allows per match

Naft Gachsaran
0.74
Khooshe Talaee Saveh
1.15

finishing

Naft Gachsaran+0.00on par
Khooshe Talaee Saveh+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naft Gachsaran ↓

Khooshe Talaee Saveh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Naft Gachsaran or draw
73%
Naft Gachsaran or Khooshe Talaee Saveh
67%
Draw or Khooshe Talaee Saveh
60%

Winning margin

Naft Gachsaran wins by 2+
15%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Naft Gachsaran 1+ goals
63%
Naft Gachsaran 2+ goals
26%
Naft Gachsaran 3+ goals
8%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh 1+ goals
53%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh 2+ goals
18%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Naft Gachsaran (draw refunded)
60%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naft Gachsaran at home — creates 0.86, concedes 0.74 · 50 matches

Khooshe Talaee Saveh away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.15 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naft Gachsaran attack 0.86 + Khooshe Talaee Saveh defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.00

Khooshe Talaee Saveh attack 0.77 + Naft Gachsaran defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Naft Gachsaran scores more
40%
level
33%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh scores more
27%

Naft Gachsaran at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Naft Gachsaran will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Naft Gachsaran vs Khooshe Talaee Saveh

Naft Gachsaran beat Khooshe Talaee Saveh 1-0 in Azadegan League on September 3, 2023.

The match was played at Naft Gachsaran Stadium in Gachsaran.