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Naft Gachsaran vs Kheybar Khorramabad — Azadegan League 2018

Naft Gachsaran
Naft Gachsaran
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Kheybar Khorramabad
Kheybar Khorramabad
J. Panahi 37' (pen)
10/27/2023Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 9Naft Gachsaran Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Naft Gachsaran31%
×Draw34%
Kheybar Khorramabad35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Naft Gachsaran
0.82
Kheybar Khorramabad
0.89

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 50 home / 67 away

creates per match

Naft Gachsaran
0.86
Kheybar Khorramabad
1.04

allows per match

Naft Gachsaran
0.74
Kheybar Khorramabad
0.78

finishing

Naft Gachsaran+0.00on par
Kheybar Khorramabad+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naft Gachsaran ↓

Kheybar Khorramabad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–116%
0–27%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–15%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
51%49%2.5
25%75%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Naft Gachsaran or draw
65%
Naft Gachsaran or Kheybar Khorramabad
66%
Draw or Kheybar Khorramabad
69%

Winning margin

Naft Gachsaran wins by 2+
10%
Kheybar Khorramabad wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Naft Gachsaran 1+ goals
56%
Naft Gachsaran 2+ goals
20%
Naft Gachsaran 3+ goals
5%
Kheybar Khorramabad 1+ goals
59%
Kheybar Khorramabad 2+ goals
22%
Kheybar Khorramabad 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Naft Gachsaran (draw refunded)
47%
Kheybar Khorramabad (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naft Gachsaran at home — creates 0.86, concedes 0.74 · 50 matches

Kheybar Khorramabad away — creates 1.04, concedes 0.78 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naft Gachsaran attack 0.86 + Kheybar Khorramabad defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.82

Kheybar Khorramabad attack 1.04 + Naft Gachsaran defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Naft Gachsaran scores more
31%
level
34%
Kheybar Khorramabad scores more
35%

Kheybar Khorramabad at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Kheybar Khorramabad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'
J. PanahiPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Naft Gachsaran vs Kheybar Khorramabad

Naft Gachsaran beat Kheybar Khorramabad 1-0 in Azadegan League on October 27, 2023.

Goals: J. Panahi (37' pen).

The match was played at Naft Gachsaran Stadium in Gachsaran.