Naft Gachsaran 1–1 Esteghlal Mollasani

Naft Gachsaran

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Esteghlal Mollasani

4/3/2024

Azadegan League · Round 23Naft Gachsaran Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Naft Gachsaran42%

×Draw32%

Esteghlal Mollasani26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Naft GachsaranExpected goals in this matchEsteghlal Mollasani

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

0.78

Naft Gachsaran

1.08

Esteghlal Mollasani

0.78

Naft Gachsaran creates 38% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 68 away

0.86

creates per match

0.82

0.74

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Naft Gachsaran

0.86

Esteghlal Mollasani

0.82

allows per match

Naft Gachsaran

0.74

Esteghlal Mollasani

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Naft Gachsaran+0.00on par

Esteghlal Mollasani+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naft Gachsaran ↓

Esteghlal Mollasani →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Naft Gachsaran or draw

74%

Naft Gachsaran or Esteghlal Mollasani

68%

Draw or Esteghlal Mollasani

58%

Winning margin

Naft Gachsaran wins by 2+

17%

Esteghlal Mollasani wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Naft Gachsaran 1+ goals

66%

Naft Gachsaran 2+ goals

29%

Naft Gachsaran 3+ goals

10%

Esteghlal Mollasani 1+ goals

54%

Esteghlal Mollasani 2+ goals

18%

Esteghlal Mollasani 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Naft Gachsaran (draw refunded)

62%

Esteghlal Mollasani (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naft Gachsaran at home — creates 0.86, concedes 0.74 · 50 matches

Esteghlal Mollasani away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.31 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naft Gachsaran attack 0.86 + Esteghlal Mollasani defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.08

Esteghlal Mollasani attack 0.82 + Naft Gachsaran defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Naft Gachsaran scores more

42%

level

32%

Esteghlal Mollasani scores more

26%

Naft Gachsaran at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Naft Gachsaran will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff