Naft Gachsaran 1–1 Damash Gilanian: Result & Stats

Naft Gachsaran

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Damash Gilanian

10/16/2024

Azadegan League · Round 7Naft Gachsaran Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Naft Gachsaran52%

×Draw30%

Damash Gilanian18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Naft GachsaranExpected goals in this matchDamash Gilanian

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.61

Naft Gachsaran

1.25

Damash Gilanian

0.61

Naft Gachsaran creates 105% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 65 away

0.86

creates per match

0.49

0.74

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Naft Gachsaran

0.86

Damash Gilanian

0.49

allows per match

Naft Gachsaran

0.74

Damash Gilanian

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Naft Gachsaran+0.00on par

Damash Gilanian+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naft Gachsaran ↓

Damash Gilanian →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Naft Gachsaran or draw

82%

Naft Gachsaran or Damash Gilanian

70%

Draw or Damash Gilanian

48%

Winning margin

Naft Gachsaran wins by 2+

24%

Damash Gilanian wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Naft Gachsaran 1+ goals

71%

Naft Gachsaran 2+ goals

36%

Naft Gachsaran 3+ goals

13%

Damash Gilanian 1+ goals

46%

Damash Gilanian 2+ goals

13%

Damash Gilanian 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Naft Gachsaran (draw refunded)

74%

Damash Gilanian (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naft Gachsaran at home — creates 0.86, concedes 0.74 · 50 matches

Damash Gilanian away — creates 0.49, concedes 1.65 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naft Gachsaran attack 0.86 + Damash Gilanian defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.25

Damash Gilanian attack 0.49 + Naft Gachsaran defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Naft Gachsaran scores more

52%

level

30%

Damash Gilanian scores more

18%

Naft Gachsaran at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Naft Gachsaran will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff