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Naft Gachsaran vs Chadormalu SC — Azadegan League 2018

Naft Gachsaran
Naft Gachsaran
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Chadormalu SC
Chadormalu SC
11/8/2023Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 11Naft Gachsaran Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Naft Gachsaran27%
×Draw34%
Chadormalu SC39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Naft Gachsaran
0.73
Chadormalu SC
0.95

Chadormalu SC creates 30% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 31 away

creates per match

Naft Gachsaran
0.86
Chadormalu SC
1.16

allows per match

Naft Gachsaran
0.74
Chadormalu SC
0.61

finishing

Naft Gachsaran+0.00on par
Chadormalu SC+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Under
  • Under76
  • Over24

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naft Gachsaran ↓

Chadormalu SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–118%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–05%
2–15%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
50%50%2.5
24%76%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Naft Gachsaran or draw
61%
Naft Gachsaran or Chadormalu SC
66%
Draw or Chadormalu SC
73%

Winning margin

Naft Gachsaran wins by 2+
8%
Chadormalu SC wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Naft Gachsaran 1+ goals
52%
Naft Gachsaran 2+ goals
17%
Naft Gachsaran 3+ goals
4%
Chadormalu SC 1+ goals
61%
Chadormalu SC 2+ goals
25%
Chadormalu SC 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Naft Gachsaran (draw refunded)
41%
Chadormalu SC (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naft Gachsaran at home — creates 0.86, concedes 0.74 · 50 matches

Chadormalu SC away — creates 1.16, concedes 0.61 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naft Gachsaran attack 0.86 + Chadormalu SC defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.73

Chadormalu SC attack 1.16 + Naft Gachsaran defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Naft Gachsaran scores more
27%
level
34%
Chadormalu SC scores more
39%

Chadormalu SC at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Chadormalu SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Naft Gachsaran 0–1 Chadormalu SC

Chadormalu SC beat Naft Gachsaran 1-0 in Azadegan League on November 8, 2023.

The match was played at Naft Gachsaran Stadium in Gachsaran.