Naft Bandar Abbas 0–1 Naft Masjed Soleyman

Naft Bandar Abbas

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Naft Masjed Soleyman

4/30/2025

Azadegan League · Round 31Khalij Fars Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Naft Bandar Abbas42%

×Draw32%

Naft Masjed Soleyman26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Naft Bandar AbbasExpected goals in this matchNaft Masjed Soleyman

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

0.76

Naft Bandar Abbas

1.06

Naft Masjed Soleyman

0.76

Naft Bandar Abbas creates 39% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 34 away

0.91

creates per match

0.94

0.58

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Naft Bandar Abbas

0.91

Naft Masjed Soleyman

0.94

allows per match

Naft Bandar Abbas

0.58

Naft Masjed Soleyman

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Naft Bandar Abbas+0.00on par

Naft Masjed Soleyman+0.00on par

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naft Bandar Abbas ↓

Naft Masjed Soleyman →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

54%46%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Naft Bandar Abbas or draw

74%

Naft Bandar Abbas or Naft Masjed Soleyman

68%

Draw or Naft Masjed Soleyman

58%

Winning margin

Naft Bandar Abbas wins by 2+

17%

Naft Masjed Soleyman wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Naft Bandar Abbas 1+ goals

65%

Naft Bandar Abbas 2+ goals

29%

Naft Bandar Abbas 3+ goals

9%

Naft Masjed Soleyman 1+ goals

53%

Naft Masjed Soleyman 2+ goals

18%

Naft Masjed Soleyman 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Naft Bandar Abbas (draw refunded)

62%

Naft Masjed Soleyman (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naft Bandar Abbas at home — creates 0.91, concedes 0.58 · 33 matches

Naft Masjed Soleyman away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.21 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naft Bandar Abbas attack 0.91 + Naft Masjed Soleyman defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.06

Naft Masjed Soleyman attack 0.94 + Naft Bandar Abbas defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Naft Bandar Abbas scores more

42%

level

32%

Naft Masjed Soleyman scores more

26%

Naft Bandar Abbas at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Naft Bandar Abbas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff