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Naft Al-Wasat vs Al Shorta — Iraqi League 2020

Naft Al-Wasat
Naft Al-Wasat
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Al Shorta
Al Shorta
4/5/2024Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 21Al Najaf Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Naft Al-Wasat24%
×Draw28%
Al Shorta48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Naft Al-Wasat
0.86
Al Shorta
1.36

Al Shorta creates 58% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 109 away

creates per match

Naft Al-Wasat
0.93
Al Shorta
1.76

allows per match

Naft Al-Wasat
0.97
Al Shorta
0.79

finishing

Naft Al-Wasat+0.00on par
Al Shorta+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naft Al-Wasat ↓

Al Shorta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–115%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Naft Al-Wasat or draw
52%
Naft Al-Wasat or Al Shorta
72%
Draw or Al Shorta
76%

Winning margin

Naft Al-Wasat wins by 2+
8%
Al Shorta wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Naft Al-Wasat 1+ goals
58%
Naft Al-Wasat 2+ goals
21%
Naft Al-Wasat 3+ goals
6%
Al Shorta 1+ goals
74%
Al Shorta 2+ goals
39%
Al Shorta 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Naft Al-Wasat (draw refunded)
33%
Al Shorta (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naft Al-Wasat at home — creates 0.93, concedes 0.97 · 74 matches

Al Shorta away — creates 1.76, concedes 0.79 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naft Al-Wasat attack 0.93 + Al Shorta defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.86

Al Shorta attack 1.76 + Naft Al-Wasat defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Naft Al-Wasat scores more
24%
level
28%
Al Shorta scores more
48%

Al Shorta at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Al Shorta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Naft Al-Wasat vs Al Shorta

Al Shorta beat Naft Al-Wasat 1-0 in Iraqi League on April 5, 2024.

The match was played at Al Najaf Stadium in Najaf.