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Naft Al-Wasat vs Al Quwa Al Jawiya — Iraqi League 2020

Naft Al-Wasat
Naft Al-Wasat
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
10/30/2023Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 2Al Najaf Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Naft Al-Wasat27%
×Draw30%
Al Quwa Al Jawiya43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Naft Al-Wasat
0.86
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
1.18

Al Quwa Al Jawiya creates 37% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 109 away

creates per match

Naft Al-Wasat
0.93
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
1.39

allows per match

Naft Al-Wasat
0.97
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
0.79

finishing

Naft Al-Wasat+0.00on par
Al Quwa Al Jawiya+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naft Al-Wasat ↓

Al Quwa Al Jawiya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–115%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Naft Al-Wasat or draw
57%
Naft Al-Wasat or Al Quwa Al Jawiya
70%
Draw or Al Quwa Al Jawiya
73%

Winning margin

Naft Al-Wasat wins by 2+
9%
Al Quwa Al Jawiya wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Naft Al-Wasat 1+ goals
58%
Naft Al-Wasat 2+ goals
21%
Naft Al-Wasat 3+ goals
6%
Al Quwa Al Jawiya 1+ goals
69%
Al Quwa Al Jawiya 2+ goals
33%
Al Quwa Al Jawiya 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Naft Al-Wasat (draw refunded)
38%
Al Quwa Al Jawiya (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naft Al-Wasat at home — creates 0.93, concedes 0.97 · 74 matches

Al Quwa Al Jawiya away — creates 1.39, concedes 0.79 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naft Al-Wasat attack 0.93 + Al Quwa Al Jawiya defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.86

Al Quwa Al Jawiya attack 1.39 + Naft Al-Wasat defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Naft Al-Wasat scores more
27%
level
30%
Al Quwa Al Jawiya scores more
43%

Al Quwa Al Jawiya at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Al Quwa Al Jawiya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Iraqi League: Naft Al-Wasat 0–1 Al Quwa Al Jawiya

Al Quwa Al Jawiya beat Naft Al-Wasat 1-0 in Iraqi League on October 30, 2023.

The match was played at Al Najaf Stadium in Najaf.