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Naft Al-Janoob vs Samarra — Iraqi League 2020

Naft Al-Janoob
Naft Al-Janoob
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Samarra
Samarra
1/6/2022Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 17Al Faihaa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Naft Al-Janoob47%
×Draw31%
Samarra23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Naft Al-Janoob
1.17
Samarra
0.72

Naft Al-Janoob creates 63% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 13 away

creates per match

Naft Al-Janoob
0.87
Samarra
0.31

allows per match

Naft Al-Janoob
1.12
Samarra
1.46

finishing

Naft Al-Janoob+0.00on par
Samarra+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naft Al-Janoob ↓

Samarra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Naft Al-Janoob or draw
77%
Naft Al-Janoob or Samarra
69%
Draw or Samarra
53%

Winning margin

Naft Al-Janoob wins by 2+
20%
Samarra wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Naft Al-Janoob 1+ goals
69%
Naft Al-Janoob 2+ goals
33%
Naft Al-Janoob 3+ goals
11%
Samarra 1+ goals
51%
Samarra 2+ goals
16%
Samarra 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Naft Al-Janoob (draw refunded)
67%
Samarra (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naft Al-Janoob at home — creates 0.87, concedes 1.12 · 90 matches

Samarra away — creates 0.31, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naft Al-Janoob attack 0.87 + Samarra defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.17

Samarra attack 0.31 + Naft Al-Janoob defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Naft Al-Janoob scores more
47%
level
31%
Samarra scores more
23%

Naft Al-Janoob at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Naft Al-Janoob will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Iraqi League: Naft Al-Janoob 2–1 Samarra

Naft Al-Janoob beat Samarra 2-1 in Iraqi League on January 6, 2022.

The match was played at Al Faihaa Stadium in Basra.