Naft Al-Janoob 2–0 Newroz: Result & Stats

Naft Al-Janoob

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Newroz

1/9/2025

Iraqi League · Round 13Al Faihaa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Naft Al-Janoob30%

×Draw27%

Newroz43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Naft Al-JanoobExpected goals in this matchNewroz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.34

Naft Al-Janoob

1.06

Newroz

1.34

Newroz creates 26% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 16 away

0.87

creates per match

1.56

1.12

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Naft Al-Janoob

0.87

Newroz

1.56

allows per match

Naft Al-Janoob

1.12

Newroz

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Naft Al-Janoob+0.00on par

Newroz+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naft Al-Janoob ↓

Newroz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Naft Al-Janoob or draw

57%

Naft Al-Janoob or Newroz

73%

Draw or Newroz

70%

Winning margin

Naft Al-Janoob wins by 2+

11%

Newroz wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Naft Al-Janoob 1+ goals

65%

Naft Al-Janoob 2+ goals

29%

Naft Al-Janoob 3+ goals

9%

Newroz 1+ goals

74%

Newroz 2+ goals

39%

Newroz 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Naft Al-Janoob (draw refunded)

41%

Newroz (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naft Al-Janoob at home — creates 0.87, concedes 1.12 · 90 matches

Newroz away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.25 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naft Al-Janoob attack 0.87 + Newroz defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.06

Newroz attack 1.56 + Naft Al-Janoob defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Naft Al-Janoob scores more

30%

level

27%

Newroz scores more

43%

Newroz at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Newroz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff