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Naft Al-Janoob vs Erbil — Iraqi League 2020

Naft Al-Janoob
Naft Al-Janoob
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Erbil
Erbil
6/4/2023Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 32Al Faihaa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Naft Al-Janoob34%
×Draw29%
Erbil36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Naft Al-Janoob
1.08
Erbil
1.12

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 90 home / 110 away

creates per match

Naft Al-Janoob
0.87
Erbil
1.11

allows per match

Naft Al-Janoob
1.12
Erbil
1.29

finishing

Naft Al-Janoob+0.00on par
Erbil+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naft Al-Janoob ↓

Erbil →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Naft Al-Janoob or draw
64%
Naft Al-Janoob or Erbil
71%
Draw or Erbil
66%

Winning margin

Naft Al-Janoob wins by 2+
14%
Erbil wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Naft Al-Janoob 1+ goals
66%
Naft Al-Janoob 2+ goals
29%
Naft Al-Janoob 3+ goals
10%
Erbil 1+ goals
67%
Erbil 2+ goals
31%
Erbil 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Naft Al-Janoob (draw refunded)
49%
Erbil (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naft Al-Janoob at home — creates 0.87, concedes 1.12 · 90 matches

Erbil away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.29 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naft Al-Janoob attack 0.87 + Erbil defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.08

Erbil attack 1.11 + Naft Al-Janoob defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Naft Al-Janoob scores more
34%
level
29%
Erbil scores more
36%

Erbil at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Erbil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Naft Al-Janoob vs Erbil

Erbil beat Naft Al-Janoob 3-1 in Iraqi League on June 4, 2023.

The match was played at Al Faihaa Stadium in Basra.