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Naft Al-Janoob vs Diyala — Iraqi League 2025

Naft Al-Janoob
Naft Al-Janoob
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Diyala
Diyala
Mahmoud Ahmad 90+2'
1/29/2025Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 17Al Faihaa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Naft Al-Janoob41%
×Draw24%
Diyala35%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Naft Al-Janoob
1.58
Diyala
1.44

Naft Al-Janoob creates 10% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 32 away

creates per match

Naft Al-Janoob
2.00
Diyala
0.88

allows per match

Naft Al-Janoob
2.00
Diyala
1.16

finishing

Naft Al-Janoob+0.00on par
Diyala+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naft Al-Janoob ↓

Diyala →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Naft Al-Janoob or draw
65%
Naft Al-Janoob or Diyala
76%
Draw or Diyala
59%

Winning margin

Naft Al-Janoob wins by 2+
20%
Diyala wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Naft Al-Janoob 1+ goals
79%
Naft Al-Janoob 2+ goals
47%
Naft Al-Janoob 3+ goals
21%
Diyala 1+ goals
76%
Diyala 2+ goals
42%
Diyala 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Naft Al-Janoob (draw refunded)
54%
Diyala (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naft Al-Janoob at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Diyala away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.16 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naft Al-Janoob attack 2.00 + Diyala defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.58

Diyala attack 0.88 + Naft Al-Janoob defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Naft Al-Janoob scores more
41%
level
24%
Diyala scores more
35%

Naft Al-Janoob at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Naft Al-Janoob will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

90+2'
Mahmoud Ahmad

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Iraqi League: Naft Al-Janoob 1–0 Diyala

Naft Al-Janoob beat Diyala 1-0 in Iraqi League on January 29, 2025.

Goals: Mahmoud Ahmad (90+2').

The match was played at Al Faihaa Stadium in Basra.