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Naft Al-Janoob vs Al Karkh — Iraqi League 2020

Naft Al-Janoob
Naft Al-Janoob
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Al Karkh
Al Karkh
3/4/2024Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 18Al Minaa Olympic Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Naft Al-Janoob32%
×Draw30%
Al Karkh37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Naft Al-Janoob
0.97
Al Karkh
1.07

Al Karkh creates 10% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 108 away

creates per match

Naft Al-Janoob
0.87
Al Karkh
1.02

allows per match

Naft Al-Janoob
1.12
Al Karkh
1.07

finishing

Naft Al-Janoob+0.00on par
Al Karkh+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naft Al-Janoob ↓

Al Karkh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–114%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Naft Al-Janoob or draw
63%
Naft Al-Janoob or Al Karkh
70%
Draw or Al Karkh
68%

Winning margin

Naft Al-Janoob wins by 2+
12%
Al Karkh wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Naft Al-Janoob 1+ goals
62%
Naft Al-Janoob 2+ goals
25%
Naft Al-Janoob 3+ goals
7%
Al Karkh 1+ goals
66%
Al Karkh 2+ goals
29%
Al Karkh 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Naft Al-Janoob (draw refunded)
46%
Al Karkh (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naft Al-Janoob at home — creates 0.87, concedes 1.12 · 90 matches

Al Karkh away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.07 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naft Al-Janoob attack 0.87 + Al Karkh defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.97

Al Karkh attack 1.02 + Naft Al-Janoob defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Naft Al-Janoob scores more
32%
level
30%
Al Karkh scores more
37%

Al Karkh at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Al Karkh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Iraqi League: Naft Al-Janoob 1–2 Al Karkh

Al Karkh beat Naft Al-Janoob 2-1 in Iraqi League on March 4, 2024.

The match was played at Al Minaa Olympic Stadium in Basra.