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Naestved vs Roskilde — 1. Division 2018

Naestved
Naestved
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Roskilde
Roskilde
7/16/20201. Division1. Division · Round 31ProfaGroupPark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Naestved49%
×Draw24%
Roskilde27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Naestved
1.75
Roskilde
1.23

Naestved creates 42% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 50 away

creates per match

Naestved
1.34
Roskilde
1.30

allows per match

Naestved
1.15
Roskilde
2.16

finishing

Naestved+0.00on par
Roskilde+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naestved ↓

Roskilde →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Naestved or draw
73%
Naestved or Roskilde
76%
Draw or Roskilde
51%

Winning margin

Naestved wins by 2+
27%
Roskilde wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Naestved 1+ goals
83%
Naestved 2+ goals
52%
Naestved 3+ goals
25%
Roskilde 1+ goals
71%
Roskilde 2+ goals
35%
Roskilde 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Naestved (draw refunded)
65%
Roskilde (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naestved at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.15 · 65 matches

Roskilde away — creates 1.30, concedes 2.16 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naestved attack 1.34 + Roskilde defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.75

Roskilde attack 1.30 + Naestved defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Naestved scores more
49%
level
24%
Roskilde scores more
27%

Naestved at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Naestved will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division: Naestved 0–2 Roskilde

Roskilde beat Naestved 2-0 in 1. Division on July 16, 2020.

The match was played at ProfaGroupPark in Næstved.