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Naestved vs Nykobing FC — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Naestved
Naestved
Preview
17:00
Nykobing FC
Nykobing FC
10/2/20262nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Round 10
Big match
51%
Naestved
model favours
51%23%26%

Nykobing FC are unbeaten in 11 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
58%
over 2.5 goals
59%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Naestved51%
×Draw23%
Nykobing FC26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Naestved
1.80
Nykobing FC
1.23

Naestved creates 46% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 32 away

creates per match

Naestved
1.44
Nykobing FC
1.13

allows per match

Naestved
1.33
Nykobing FC
2.16

finishing

Naestved+0.00on par
Nykobing FC+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naestved ↓

Nykobing FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Naestved or draw
74%
Naestved or Nykobing FC
77%
Draw or Nykobing FC
49%

Winning margin

Naestved wins by 2+
28%
Nykobing FC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Naestved 1+ goals
83%
Naestved 2+ goals
54%
Naestved 3+ goals
27%
Nykobing FC 1+ goals
71%
Nykobing FC 2+ goals
35%
Nykobing FC 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Naestved (draw refunded)
66%
Nykobing FC (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naestved at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.33 · 43 matches

Nykobing FC away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.16 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naestved attack 1.44 + Nykobing FC defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.80

Nykobing FC attack 1.13 + Naestved defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Naestved scores more
51%
level
23%
Nykobing FC scores more
26%

Naestved at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Naestved will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Nykobing FC have won 6 in a row
  • 73% of Nykobing FC’s matches go over 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Naestved
WLW
FC
WWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Naestved vs Nykobing FC — Match Preview

Naestved face Nykobing FC on October 2, 2026 in this 2nd Division - Group 1 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.