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Naestved vs Nykobing FC — 1. Division 2018

Naestved
Naestved
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Nykobing FC
Nykobing FC
8/21/20221. Division1. Division · Round 6Tintshop Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Naestved48%
×Draw25%
Nykobing FC27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Naestved
1.63
Nykobing FC
1.17

Naestved creates 39% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 65 away

creates per match

Naestved
1.34
Nykobing FC
1.20

allows per match

Naestved
1.15
Nykobing FC
1.91

finishing

Naestved+0.00on par
Nykobing FC+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naestved ↓

Nykobing FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Naestved or draw
73%
Naestved or Nykobing FC
75%
Draw or Nykobing FC
52%

Winning margin

Naestved wins by 2+
25%
Nykobing FC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Naestved 1+ goals
80%
Naestved 2+ goals
48%
Naestved 3+ goals
22%
Nykobing FC 1+ goals
69%
Nykobing FC 2+ goals
33%
Nykobing FC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Naestved (draw refunded)
64%
Nykobing FC (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naestved at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.15 · 65 matches

Nykobing FC away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.91 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naestved attack 1.34 + Nykobing FC defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.63

Nykobing FC attack 1.20 + Naestved defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Naestved scores more
48%
level
25%
Nykobing FC scores more
27%

Naestved at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Naestved will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Naestved vs Nykobing FC

Naestved beat Nykobing FC 3-0 in 1. Division on August 21, 2022.

The match was played at Tintshop Park in Næstved.