Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Naestved vs Kolding IF — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Naestved
Naestved
FT
1 – 0
Kolding IF
Kolding IF
8/15/20212nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 2Tintshop Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Naestved28%
×Draw25%
Kolding IF47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Naestved
1.17
Kolding IF
1.57

Kolding IF creates 34% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 37 away

creates per match

Naestved
1.44
Kolding IF
1.81

allows per match

Naestved
1.33
Kolding IF
0.89

finishing

Naestved+0.00on par
Kolding IF+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naestved ↓

Kolding IF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Naestved or draw
53%
Naestved or Kolding IF
75%
Draw or Kolding IF
72%

Winning margin

Naestved wins by 2+
11%
Kolding IF wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Naestved 1+ goals
69%
Naestved 2+ goals
33%
Naestved 3+ goals
11%
Kolding IF 1+ goals
79%
Kolding IF 2+ goals
46%
Kolding IF 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Naestved (draw refunded)
38%
Kolding IF (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naestved at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.33 · 43 matches

Kolding IF away — creates 1.81, concedes 0.89 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naestved attack 1.44 + Kolding IF defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.17

Kolding IF attack 1.81 + Naestved defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Naestved scores more
28%
level
25%
Kolding IF scores more
47%

Kolding IF at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Kolding IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Naestved vs Kolding IF

Naestved beat Kolding IF 1-0 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on August 15, 2021.

The match was played at Tintshop Park in Næstved.