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Naestved vs Ishøj — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Naestved
Naestved
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Ishøj
Ishøj
M. Kongstedt 80'
E. Salamoun 90+3', 89'
4/4/20252nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Round 21MTM Service Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Naestved44%
×Draw24%
Ishøj31%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Naestved
1.61
Ishøj
1.32

Naestved creates 22% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 32 away

creates per match

Naestved
1.44
Ishøj
1.31

allows per match

Naestved
1.33
Ishøj
1.78

finishing

Naestved+0.00on par
Ishøj+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naestved ↓

Ishøj →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Naestved or draw
69%
Naestved or Ishøj
76%
Draw or Ishøj
56%

Winning margin

Naestved wins by 2+
23%
Ishøj wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Naestved 1+ goals
80%
Naestved 2+ goals
48%
Naestved 3+ goals
22%
Ishøj 1+ goals
73%
Ishøj 2+ goals
38%
Ishøj 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Naestved (draw refunded)
58%
Ishøj (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naestved at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.33 · 43 matches

Ishøj away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.78 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naestved attack 1.44 + Ishøj defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.61

Ishøj attack 1.31 + Naestved defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Naestved scores more
44%
level
24%
Ishøj scores more
31%

Naestved at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Naestved will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'
B. Masaad← B. Masaad
34'
H. Tumturk
37'
M. Kongstedt
66'
M. Rugaard← M. Rugaard
66'
M. Kisum← S. Madsen
73'
S. Appiah← S. Appiah
73'
M. Al Atlassi← M. Juul
79'
M. Carlson← M. Christiansen
80'
M. Kongstedt
87'
M. Kristensen
89'
E. Salamoun
90'
A. Nehme← H. Hakopian
90+3'
E. Salamoun

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2nd Division - Group 1: Naestved 1–2 Ishøj

Ishøj beat Naestved 2-1 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on April 4, 2025.

Goals: M. Kongstedt (80'), E. Salamoun (89', 90+3').

The match was played at MTM Service Park in Næstved.