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Naestved vs Fremad Amager — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Naestved
Naestved
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Fremad Amager
Fremad Amager
3/21/20252nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Round 19MTM Service Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Naestved42%
×Draw26%
Fremad Amager32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Naestved
1.46
Fremad Amager
1.25

Naestved creates 17% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 48 away

creates per match

Naestved
1.44
Fremad Amager
1.17

allows per match

Naestved
1.33
Fremad Amager
1.48

finishing

Naestved+0.00on par
Fremad Amager+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naestved ↓

Fremad Amager →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Naestved or draw
68%
Naestved or Fremad Amager
74%
Draw or Fremad Amager
58%

Winning margin

Naestved wins by 2+
20%
Fremad Amager wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Naestved 1+ goals
77%
Naestved 2+ goals
43%
Naestved 3+ goals
18%
Fremad Amager 1+ goals
71%
Fremad Amager 2+ goals
36%
Fremad Amager 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Naestved (draw refunded)
56%
Fremad Amager (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naestved at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.33 · 43 matches

Fremad Amager away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.48 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naestved attack 1.44 + Fremad Amager defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.46

Fremad Amager attack 1.17 + Naestved defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Naestved scores more
42%
level
26%
Fremad Amager scores more
32%

Naestved at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Naestved will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Naestved vs Fremad Amager

Naestved and Fremad Amager drew 1-1 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on March 21, 2025.

The match was played at MTM Service Park in Næstved.