Naegohyang W 3–0 Ispe W: Result & Stats

Naegohyang W

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Ispe W

11/15/2025

AFC Women's Champions League · Group Stage - 3Thuwunna Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Naegohyang W72%

×Draw14%

Ispe W14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Naegohyang WExpected goals in this matchIspe W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.33

1.48

Naegohyang W

3.33

Ispe W

1.48

Naegohyang W creates 125% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

4.40

creates per match

2.75

0.20

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

Naegohyang W

4.40

Ispe W

2.75

allows per match

Naegohyang W

0.20

Ispe W

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Naegohyang W+0.00on par

Ispe W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over85
Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naegohyang W ↓

Ispe W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–03%

1–14%

1–23%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–18%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–17%

4–25%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

85%15%3.5

69%31%4.5

50%50%

Double chance

Naegohyang W or draw

86%

Naegohyang W or Ispe W

86%

Draw or Ispe W

28%

Winning margin

Naegohyang W wins by 2+

53%

Ispe W wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Naegohyang W 1+ goals

96%

Naegohyang W 2+ goals

84%

Naegohyang W 3+ goals

63%

Ispe W 1+ goals

77%

Ispe W 2+ goals

43%

Ispe W 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Naegohyang W (draw refunded)

84%

Ispe W (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

70%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naegohyang W at home — creates 4.40, concedes 0.20 · 5 matches

Ispe W away — creates 2.75, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naegohyang W attack 4.40 + Ispe W defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 3.33

Ispe W attack 2.75 + Naegohyang W defence 0.20 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Naegohyang W scores more

72%

level

14%

Ispe W scores more

14%

Naegohyang W at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Naegohyang W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff