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Nadur Youngsters vs Vittoriosa Stars — FA Trophy 2020

Nadur Youngsters
Nadur Youngsters
FT
7 – 1
HT: 6 – 0
Vittoriosa Stars
Vittoriosa Stars
11/19/2022FA TrophyFA Trophy · Preliminary RoundKercem Ajax Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Nadur Youngsters84%
×Draw10%
Vittoriosa Stars6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nadur Youngsters
3.75
Vittoriosa Stars
1.02

Nadur Youngsters creates 268% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

Nadur Youngsters
4.00
Vittoriosa Stars
0.25

allows per match

Nadur Youngsters
1.80
Vittoriosa Stars
3.50

finishing

Nadur Youngsters+0.00on par
Vittoriosa Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nadur Youngsters ↓

Vittoriosa Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–14%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–18%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (8%) · grid covers 74% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
84%16%3.5
67%33%4.5
47%53%

Double chance

Nadur Youngsters or draw
94%
Nadur Youngsters or Vittoriosa Stars
90%
Draw or Vittoriosa Stars
16%

Winning margin

Nadur Youngsters wins by 2+
68%
Vittoriosa Stars wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Nadur Youngsters 1+ goals
97%
Nadur Youngsters 2+ goals
88%
Nadur Youngsters 3+ goals
70%
Vittoriosa Stars 1+ goals
64%
Vittoriosa Stars 2+ goals
27%
Vittoriosa Stars 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Nadur Youngsters (draw refunded)
93%
Vittoriosa Stars (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nadur Youngsters at home — creates 4.00, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Vittoriosa Stars away — creates 0.25, concedes 3.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nadur Youngsters attack 4.00 + Vittoriosa Stars defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 3.75

Vittoriosa Stars attack 0.25 + Nadur Youngsters defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

Nadur Youngsters scores more
84%
level
10%
Vittoriosa Stars scores more
6%

Nadur Youngsters at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Nadur Youngsters will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nadur Youngsters vs Vittoriosa Stars

Nadur Youngsters beat Vittoriosa Stars 7-1 in FA Trophy on November 19, 2022.

The match was played at Kercem Ajax Ground in Kercem.