Nadur Youngsters 2–2 St. Andrews: Result & Stats

Nadur Youngsters

AET

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

St. Andrews

12/13/2023

FA Trophy · Preliminary RoundKercem Ajax Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Nadur Youngsters54%

×Draw19%

St. Andrews27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nadur YoungstersExpected goals in this matchSt. Andrews

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.50

1.73

Nadur Youngsters

2.50

St. Andrews

1.73

Nadur Youngsters creates 45% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

4.00

creates per match

1.67

1.80

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Nadur Youngsters

4.00

St. Andrews

1.67

allows per match

Nadur Youngsters

1.80

St. Andrews

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nadur Youngsters+0.00on par

St. Andrews+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nadur Youngsters ↓

St. Andrews →

0–01%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1–04%

1–16%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4–02%

4–14%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

60%40%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

Nadur Youngsters or draw

73%

Nadur Youngsters or St. Andrews

81%

Draw or St. Andrews

46%

Winning margin

Nadur Youngsters wins by 2+

34%

St. Andrews wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Nadur Youngsters 1+ goals

92%

Nadur Youngsters 2+ goals

71%

Nadur Youngsters 3+ goals

45%

St. Andrews 1+ goals

82%

St. Andrews 2+ goals

52%

St. Andrews 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Nadur Youngsters (draw refunded)

67%

St. Andrews (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

69%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Nadur Youngsters at home — creates 4.00, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

St. Andrews away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Nadur Youngsters attack 4.00 + St. Andrews defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 2.50

St. Andrews attack 1.67 + Nadur Youngsters defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 54%?"

Nadur Youngsters scores more

54%

level

19%

St. Andrews scores more

27%

Nadur Youngsters at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Nadur Youngsters will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nadur Youngsters vs St. Andrews

Nadur Youngsters and St. Andrews drew 2-2 in FA Trophy on December 13, 2023.

The match was played at Kercem Ajax Ground in Kercem.

Nadur Youngsters vs St. Andrews — FA Trophy 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Nadur Youngsters vs St. Andrews