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Nadur Youngsters vs Sirens — FA Trophy 2020

Nadur Youngsters
Nadur Youngsters
AET
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Sirens
Sirens
1/14/2024FA TrophyFA Trophy · 1st RoundGozo Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Nadur Youngsters70%
×Draw16%
Sirens14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nadur Youngsters
2.83
Sirens
1.24

Nadur Youngsters creates 128% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

Nadur Youngsters
4.00
Sirens
0.67

allows per match

Nadur Youngsters
1.80
Sirens
1.67

finishing

Nadur Youngsters+0.00on par
Sirens+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nadur Youngsters ↓

Sirens →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Nadur Youngsters or draw
86%
Nadur Youngsters or Sirens
84%
Draw or Sirens
30%

Winning margin

Nadur Youngsters wins by 2+
49%
Sirens wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Nadur Youngsters 1+ goals
94%
Nadur Youngsters 2+ goals
77%
Nadur Youngsters 3+ goals
53%
Sirens 1+ goals
71%
Sirens 2+ goals
35%
Sirens 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Nadur Youngsters (draw refunded)
83%
Sirens (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nadur Youngsters at home — creates 4.00, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Sirens away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nadur Youngsters attack 4.00 + Sirens defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.83

Sirens attack 0.67 + Nadur Youngsters defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Nadur Youngsters scores more
70%
level
16%
Sirens scores more
14%

Nadur Youngsters at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Nadur Youngsters will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Trophy: Nadur Youngsters 1–1 Sirens

Nadur Youngsters and Sirens drew 1-1 in FA Trophy on January 14, 2024.

The match was played at Gozo Stadium in Gozo.