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Nadur Youngsters vs Oratory Youths — FA Trophy 2020

Nadur Youngsters
Nadur Youngsters
FT
7 – 0
Oratory Youths
Oratory Youths
12/8/2021FA TrophyFA Trophy · Preliminary RoundGozo Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Nadur Youngsters89%
×Draw7%
Oratory Youths5%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nadur Youngsters
5.00
Oratory Youths
1.24

Nadur Youngsters creates 303% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

Nadur Youngsters
4.00
Oratory Youths
0.67

allows per match

Nadur Youngsters
1.80
Oratory Youths
6.00

finishing

Nadur Youngsters+0.00on par
Oratory Youths+0.00on par

Total goals

93%Over
  • Over93
  • Under7

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nadur Youngsters ↓

Oratory Youths →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–10%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–01%
1–12%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–03%
2–14%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–07%
4–18%
4–25%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 4–1 (8%) · grid covers 57% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
93%7%3.5
83%17%4.5
67%33%

Double chance

Nadur Youngsters or draw
95%
Nadur Youngsters or Oratory Youths
93%
Draw or Oratory Youths
11%

Winning margin

Nadur Youngsters wins by 2+
76%
Oratory Youths wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Nadur Youngsters 1+ goals
99%
Nadur Youngsters 2+ goals
95%
Nadur Youngsters 3+ goals
84%
Oratory Youths 1+ goals
71%
Oratory Youths 2+ goals
35%
Oratory Youths 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Nadur Youngsters (draw refunded)
95%
Oratory Youths (draw refunded)
5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nadur Youngsters at home — creates 4.00, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Oratory Youths away — creates 0.67, concedes 6.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nadur Youngsters attack 4.00 + Oratory Youths defence 6.00 → ÷2 → 5.00

Oratory Youths attack 0.67 + Nadur Youngsters defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 89%?"

Nadur Youngsters scores more
89%
level
7%
Oratory Youths scores more
5%

Nadur Youngsters at 89% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 89% does not mean "Nadur Youngsters will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Trophy: Nadur Youngsters 7–0 Oratory Youths

Nadur Youngsters beat Oratory Youths 7-0 in FA Trophy on December 8, 2021.

The match was played at Gozo Stadium in Gozo.