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Nadruvis vs Šilas — Cup 2020

Nadruvis
Nadruvis
FT
1 – 9
Šilas
Šilas
4/26/2023CupCup · 1st RoundPrienų stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Nadruvis0%
×Draw1%
Šilas98%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nadruvis
0.53
Šilas
6.90

Šilas creates 1202% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

Nadruvis
0.25
Šilas
4.80

allows per match

Nadruvis
9.00
Šilas
0.80

finishing

Nadruvis+0.00on par
Šilas+0.00on par

Total goals

95%Over
  • Over95
  • Under5

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nadruvis ↓

Šilas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–23%
0–37%
0–412%
1
1–00%
1–10%
1–22%
1–34%
1–46%
2
2–00%
2–10%
2–20%
2–31%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–4 (12%) · grid covers 39% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
99%1%2.5
95%5%3.5
87%13%4.5
70%30%

Double chance

Nadruvis or draw
2%
Nadruvis or Šilas
99%
Draw or Šilas
100%

Winning margin

Nadruvis wins by 2+
0%
Šilas wins by 2+
95%

Team goals

Nadruvis 1+ goals
41%
Nadruvis 2+ goals
10%
Nadruvis 3+ goals
2%
Šilas 1+ goals
100%
Šilas 2+ goals
98%
Šilas 3+ goals
93%

Draw no bet

Nadruvis (draw refunded)
0%
Šilas (draw refunded)
100%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
0%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nadruvis at home — creates 0.25, concedes 9.00 · 4 matches

Šilas away — creates 4.80, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nadruvis attack 0.25 + Šilas defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.53

Šilas attack 4.80 + Nadruvis defence 9.00 → ÷2 → 6.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 98%?"

Nadruvis scores more
0%
level
1%
Šilas scores more
98%

Šilas at 98% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 98% does not mean "Šilas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nadruvis vs Šilas

Šilas beat Nadruvis 9-1 in Cup on April 26, 2023.

The match was played at Prienų stadionas in Prienai.