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Nadruvis vs Ekranas — Cup 2020

Nadruvis
Nadruvis
FT
0 – 13
Ekranas
Ekranas
4/21/2024CupCup · 1st RoundKaišiadorių švietimo ir sporto centro stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Nadruvis0%
×Draw1%
Ekranas99%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nadruvis
0.55
Ekranas
7.43

Ekranas creates 1251% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

creates per match

Nadruvis
0.25
Ekranas
5.86

allows per match

Nadruvis
9.00
Ekranas
0.86

finishing

Nadruvis+0.00on par
Ekranas+0.00on par

Total goals

96%Over
  • Over96
  • Under4

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nadruvis ↓

Ekranas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–22%
0–36%
0–411%
1
1–00%
1–10%
1–21%
1–33%
1–46%
2
2–00%
2–10%
2–20%
2–31%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–4 (11%) · grid covers 35% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
99%1%2.5
96%4%3.5
89%11%4.5
74%26%

Double chance

Nadruvis or draw
1%
Nadruvis or Ekranas
99%
Draw or Ekranas
100%

Winning margin

Nadruvis wins by 2+
0%
Ekranas wins by 2+
95%

Team goals

Nadruvis 1+ goals
42%
Nadruvis 2+ goals
11%
Nadruvis 3+ goals
2%
Ekranas 1+ goals
100%
Ekranas 2+ goals
99%
Ekranas 3+ goals
94%

Draw no bet

Nadruvis (draw refunded)
0%
Ekranas (draw refunded)
100%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
0%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nadruvis at home — creates 0.25, concedes 9.00 · 4 matches

Ekranas away — creates 5.86, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nadruvis attack 0.25 + Ekranas defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.55

Ekranas attack 5.86 + Nadruvis defence 9.00 → ÷2 → 7.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 99%?"

Nadruvis scores more
0%
level
1%
Ekranas scores more
99%

Ekranas at 99% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 99% does not mean "Ekranas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Nadruvis 0–13 Ekranas

Ekranas beat Nadruvis 13-0 in Cup on April 21, 2024.

The match was played at Kaišiadorių švietimo ir sporto centro stadionas in Kaišiadorys.