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Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi vs Velbazhd — Third League - Southwest 2018

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
FT
2 – 1
Velbazhd
Velbazhd
10/24/2018Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Round 12Tsarsko selo Complex (Sofia)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi64%
×Draw20%
Velbazhd16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
2.07
Velbazhd
0.91

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi creates 127% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 34 away

creates per match

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
1.35
Velbazhd
0.50

allows per match

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
1.32
Velbazhd
2.79

finishing

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi+0.00on par
Velbazhd+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi ↓

Velbazhd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi or draw
84%
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi or Velbazhd
80%
Draw or Velbazhd
36%

Winning margin

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi wins by 2+
40%
Velbazhd wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 1+ goals
87%
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 2+ goals
61%
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 3+ goals
34%
Velbazhd 1+ goals
60%
Velbazhd 2+ goals
23%
Velbazhd 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi (draw refunded)
80%
Velbazhd (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.32 · 78 matches

Velbazhd away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.79 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi attack 1.35 + Velbazhd defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.07

Velbazhd attack 0.50 + Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi scores more
64%
level
20%
Velbazhd scores more
16%

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi vs Velbazhd

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi beat Velbazhd 2-1 in Third League - Southwest on October 24, 2018.

The match was played at Tsarsko selo Complex (Sofia).