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Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi vs Septemvri Simitli — Third League - Southwest 2018

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
FT
2 – 0
Septemvri Simitli
Septemvri Simitli
3/23/2019Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Round 23Stadion Dobroslavtsi (Dobroslavtsi)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi43%
×Draw26%
Septemvri Simitli30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
1.42
Septemvri Simitli
1.14

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi creates 25% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 94 away

creates per match

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
1.35
Septemvri Simitli
0.96

allows per match

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
1.32
Septemvri Simitli
1.48

finishing

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi+0.00on par
Septemvri Simitli+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi ↓

Septemvri Simitli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi or draw
70%
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi or Septemvri Simitli
74%
Draw or Septemvri Simitli
57%

Winning margin

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi wins by 2+
21%
Septemvri Simitli wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 1+ goals
76%
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 2+ goals
41%
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 3+ goals
17%
Septemvri Simitli 1+ goals
68%
Septemvri Simitli 2+ goals
32%
Septemvri Simitli 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi (draw refunded)
59%
Septemvri Simitli (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.32 · 78 matches

Septemvri Simitli away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.48 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi attack 1.35 + Septemvri Simitli defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.42

Septemvri Simitli attack 0.96 + Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi scores more
43%
level
26%
Septemvri Simitli scores more
30%

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 2–0 Septemvri Simitli

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi beat Septemvri Simitli 2-0 in Third League - Southwest on March 23, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Dobroslavtsi (Dobroslavtsi).