Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 2–0 Rilski Sportist

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi

FT

2 – 0

Rilski Sportist

10/9/2021

Third League - Southwest · South-West - 12Stadion Dobroslavtsi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi45%

×Draw25%

Rilski Sportist30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nadezhda DobroslavtsiExpected goals in this matchRilski Sportist

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.20

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi

1.54

Rilski Sportist

1.20

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi creates 28% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 129 away

1.35

creates per match

1.07

1.32

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi

1.35

Rilski Sportist

1.07

allows per match

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi

1.32

Rilski Sportist

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi+0.00on par

Rilski Sportist+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi ↓

Rilski Sportist →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi or draw

70%

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi or Rilski Sportist

75%

Draw or Rilski Sportist

55%

Winning margin

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi wins by 2+

23%

Rilski Sportist wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 1+ goals

79%

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 2+ goals

45%

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 3+ goals

20%

Rilski Sportist 1+ goals

70%

Rilski Sportist 2+ goals

34%

Rilski Sportist 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi (draw refunded)

60%

Rilski Sportist (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.32 · 78 matches

Rilski Sportist away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.73 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi attack 1.35 + Rilski Sportist defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.54

Rilski Sportist attack 1.07 + Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi scores more

45%

level

25%

Rilski Sportist scores more

30%

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff