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Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi vs Pirin Razlog — Third League - Southwest 2018

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
FT
1 – 1
Pirin Razlog
Pirin Razlog
11/14/2020Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · South-West - 15Stadion Dobroslavtsi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi44%
×Draw26%
Pirin Razlog30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
1.46
Pirin Razlog
1.15

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi creates 27% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 131 away

creates per match

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
1.35
Pirin Razlog
0.98

allows per match

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
1.32
Pirin Razlog
1.57

finishing

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi+0.00on par
Pirin Razlog+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi ↓

Pirin Razlog →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi or draw
70%
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi or Pirin Razlog
74%
Draw or Pirin Razlog
56%

Winning margin

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi wins by 2+
22%
Pirin Razlog wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 1+ goals
77%
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 2+ goals
43%
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 3+ goals
18%
Pirin Razlog 1+ goals
68%
Pirin Razlog 2+ goals
32%
Pirin Razlog 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi (draw refunded)
60%
Pirin Razlog (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.32 · 78 matches

Pirin Razlog away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.57 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi attack 1.35 + Pirin Razlog defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.46

Pirin Razlog attack 0.98 + Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi scores more
44%
level
26%
Pirin Razlog scores more
30%

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi vs Pirin Razlog

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi and Pirin Razlog drew 1-1 in Third League - Southwest on November 14, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Dobroslavtsi in Dobroslavtsi.