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Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi vs Levski Rakovski — Third League - Southwest 2018

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Levski Rakovski
Levski Rakovski
5/13/2023Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - Relegation Round - 9Stadion Dobroslavtsi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi53%
×Draw23%
Levski Rakovski24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
1.77
Levski Rakovski
1.10

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi creates 61% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 16 away

creates per match

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
1.35
Levski Rakovski
0.88

allows per match

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
1.32
Levski Rakovski
2.19

finishing

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi+0.00on par
Levski Rakovski+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi ↓

Levski Rakovski →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi or draw
76%
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi or Levski Rakovski
77%
Draw or Levski Rakovski
47%

Winning margin

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi wins by 2+
29%
Levski Rakovski wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 1+ goals
83%
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 2+ goals
53%
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 3+ goals
26%
Levski Rakovski 1+ goals
67%
Levski Rakovski 2+ goals
30%
Levski Rakovski 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi (draw refunded)
69%
Levski Rakovski (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.32 · 78 matches

Levski Rakovski away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.19 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi attack 1.35 + Levski Rakovski defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.77

Levski Rakovski attack 0.88 + Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi scores more
53%
level
23%
Levski Rakovski scores more
24%

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 1–0 Levski Rakovski

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi beat Levski Rakovski 1-0 in Third League - Southwest on May 13, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Dobroslavtsi in Dobroslavtsi.