Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 9–1 Levski Chepintsi

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi

FT

9 – 1

Levski Chepintsi

5/28/2022

Third League - Southwest · South-West - 37Stadion Dobroslavtsi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi71%

×Draw16%

Levski Chepintsi12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nadezhda DobroslavtsiExpected goals in this matchLevski Chepintsi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.56

0.97

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi

2.56

Levski Chepintsi

0.97

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi creates 164% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 36 away

1.35

creates per match

0.61

1.32

allows per match

3.78

creates per match

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi

1.35

Levski Chepintsi

0.61

allows per match

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi

1.32

Levski Chepintsi

3.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi+0.00on par

Levski Chepintsi+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi ↓

Levski Chepintsi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–17%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi or draw

88%

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi or Levski Chepintsi

84%

Draw or Levski Chepintsi

29%

Winning margin

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi wins by 2+

49%

Levski Chepintsi wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 1+ goals

92%

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 2+ goals

72%

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 3+ goals

46%

Levski Chepintsi 1+ goals

62%

Levski Chepintsi 2+ goals

25%

Levski Chepintsi 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi (draw refunded)

85%

Levski Chepintsi (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.32 · 78 matches

Levski Chepintsi away — creates 0.61, concedes 3.78 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi attack 1.35 + Levski Chepintsi defence 3.78 → ÷2 → 2.56

Levski Chepintsi attack 0.61 + Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi scores more

71%

level

16%

Levski Chepintsi scores more

12%

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff