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Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi vs Hebar II — Third League - Southwest 2018

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
FT
1 – 0
Hebar II
Hebar II
11/27/2021Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · South-West - 19Stadion Dobroslavtsi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi50%
×Draw26%
Hebar II24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
1.48
Hebar II
0.94

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi creates 57% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 38 away

creates per match

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
1.35
Hebar II
0.55

allows per match

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
1.32
Hebar II
1.61

finishing

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi+0.00on par
Hebar II+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi ↓

Hebar II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi or draw
76%
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi or Hebar II
74%
Draw or Hebar II
50%

Winning margin

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi wins by 2+
25%
Hebar II wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 1+ goals
77%
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 2+ goals
43%
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 3+ goals
19%
Hebar II 1+ goals
61%
Hebar II 2+ goals
24%
Hebar II 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi (draw refunded)
67%
Hebar II (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.32 · 78 matches

Hebar II away — creates 0.55, concedes 1.61 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi attack 1.35 + Hebar II defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.48

Hebar II attack 0.55 + Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi scores more
50%
level
26%
Hebar II scores more
24%

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi vs Hebar II

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi beat Hebar II 1-0 in Third League - Southwest on November 27, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Dobroslavtsi in Dobroslavtsi.