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Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi vs Granit Vladaya — Third League - Southwest 2018

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
FT
3 – 1
Granit Vladaya
Granit Vladaya
10/3/2020Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · South-West - 9Stadion Dobroslavtsi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi59%
×Draw21%
Granit Vladaya19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
1.99
Granit Vladaya
1.03

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi creates 93% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 70 away

creates per match

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
1.35
Granit Vladaya
0.74

allows per match

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
1.32
Granit Vladaya
2.63

finishing

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi+0.00on par
Granit Vladaya+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi ↓

Granit Vladaya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi or draw
81%
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi or Granit Vladaya
79%
Draw or Granit Vladaya
41%

Winning margin

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi wins by 2+
36%
Granit Vladaya wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 1+ goals
86%
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 2+ goals
59%
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 3+ goals
32%
Granit Vladaya 1+ goals
64%
Granit Vladaya 2+ goals
28%
Granit Vladaya 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi (draw refunded)
76%
Granit Vladaya (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.32 · 78 matches

Granit Vladaya away — creates 0.74, concedes 2.63 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi attack 1.35 + Granit Vladaya defence 2.63 → ÷2 → 1.99

Granit Vladaya attack 0.74 + Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi scores more
59%
level
21%
Granit Vladaya scores more
19%

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi vs Granit Vladaya

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi beat Granit Vladaya 3-1 in Third League - Southwest on October 3, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Dobroslavtsi in Dobroslavtsi.