Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Granit Vladaya vs Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi — Third League - Southwest 2018

Granit Vladaya
Granit Vladaya
FT
2 – 0
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
4/10/2021Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · South-West - 26Stadion Vladaia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Granit Vladaya47%
×Draw23%
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Granit Vladaya
1.75
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
1.34

Granit Vladaya creates 31% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 78 away

creates per match

Granit Vladaya
1.14
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
1.09

allows per match

Granit Vladaya
1.59
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
2.37

finishing

Granit Vladaya+0.00on par
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Granit Vladaya ↓

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Granit Vladaya or draw
70%
Granit Vladaya or Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
77%
Draw or Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
53%

Winning margin

Granit Vladaya wins by 2+
25%
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Granit Vladaya 1+ goals
83%
Granit Vladaya 2+ goals
52%
Granit Vladaya 3+ goals
25%
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 1+ goals
74%
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 2+ goals
39%
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Granit Vladaya (draw refunded)
61%
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Granit Vladaya at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.59 · 70 matches

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.37 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Granit Vladaya attack 1.14 + Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 1.75

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi attack 1.09 + Granit Vladaya defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Granit Vladaya scores more
47%
level
23%
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi scores more
30%

Granit Vladaya at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Granit Vladaya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Granit Vladaya vs Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi

Granit Vladaya beat Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 2-0 in Third League - Southwest on April 10, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Vladaia in Vladaya.