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Nacka Iliria vs Syrianska FC — Division 2 - Södra Svealand 2019

Nacka Iliria
Nacka Iliria
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Syrianska FC
Syrianska FC
5/14/2024Division 2 - Södra SvealandDivision 2 - Södra Svealand · Södra Svealand - 2Fisksätra IP 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Nacka Iliria41%
×Draw23%
Syrianska FC36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nacka Iliria
1.77
Syrianska FC
1.66

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 33 home / 73 away

creates per match

Nacka Iliria
1.67
Syrianska FC
1.73

allows per match

Nacka Iliria
1.58
Syrianska FC
1.86

finishing

Nacka Iliria+0.00on par
Syrianska FC+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nacka Iliria ↓

Syrianska FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Nacka Iliria or draw
64%
Nacka Iliria or Syrianska FC
77%
Draw or Syrianska FC
59%

Winning margin

Nacka Iliria wins by 2+
21%
Syrianska FC wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Nacka Iliria 1+ goals
83%
Nacka Iliria 2+ goals
53%
Nacka Iliria 3+ goals
26%
Syrianska FC 1+ goals
81%
Syrianska FC 2+ goals
49%
Syrianska FC 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Nacka Iliria (draw refunded)
53%
Syrianska FC (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nacka Iliria at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.58 · 33 matches

Syrianska FC away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.86 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nacka Iliria attack 1.67 + Syrianska FC defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.77

Syrianska FC attack 1.73 + Nacka Iliria defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Nacka Iliria scores more
41%
level
23%
Syrianska FC scores more
36%

Nacka Iliria at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Nacka Iliria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nacka Iliria vs Syrianska FC

Syrianska FC beat Nacka Iliria 2-1 in Division 2 - Södra Svealand on May 14, 2024.

The match was played at Fisksätra IP 1 in Saltsjöbaden.