Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Nacka Iliria vs Mjölby — Division 2 - Södra Svealand 2019

Nacka Iliria
Nacka Iliria
FT
5 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
Mjölby
Mjölby
8/11/2024Division 2 - Södra SvealandDivision 2 - Södra Svealand · Södra Svealand - 16Fisksätra IP 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Nacka Iliria53%
×Draw21%
Mjölby26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nacka Iliria
2.09
Mjölby
1.41

Nacka Iliria creates 48% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 40 away

creates per match

Nacka Iliria
1.67
Mjölby
1.23

allows per match

Nacka Iliria
1.58
Mjölby
2.52

finishing

Nacka Iliria+0.00on par
Mjölby+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nacka Iliria ↓

Mjölby →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Nacka Iliria or draw
74%
Nacka Iliria or Mjölby
79%
Draw or Mjölby
47%

Winning margin

Nacka Iliria wins by 2+
31%
Mjölby wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Nacka Iliria 1+ goals
88%
Nacka Iliria 2+ goals
62%
Nacka Iliria 3+ goals
34%
Mjölby 1+ goals
76%
Mjölby 2+ goals
41%
Mjölby 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Nacka Iliria (draw refunded)
67%
Mjölby (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nacka Iliria at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.58 · 33 matches

Mjölby away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.52 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nacka Iliria attack 1.67 + Mjölby defence 2.52 → ÷2 → 2.09

Mjölby attack 1.23 + Nacka Iliria defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Nacka Iliria scores more
53%
level
21%
Mjölby scores more
26%

Nacka Iliria at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Nacka Iliria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 2 - Södra Svealand: Nacka Iliria 5–0 Mjölby

Nacka Iliria beat Mjölby 5-0 in Division 2 - Södra Svealand on August 11, 2024.

The match was played at Fisksätra IP 1 in Saltsjöbaden.