Nacional 6–1 Mirandela: Result & Stats

Nacional

FT

6 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Mirandela

10/21/2023

Taça de Portugal · 3rd RoundEstádio da Madeira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Nacional51%

×Draw21%

Mirandela28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NacionalExpected goals in this matchMirandela

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

1.53

Nacional

2.10

Mirandela

1.53

Nacional creates 37% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

2.20

creates per match

1.67

1.40

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Nacional

2.20

Mirandela

1.67

allows per match

Nacional

1.40

Mirandela

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nacional+0.00on par

Mirandela+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nacional ↓

Mirandela →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Nacional or draw

72%

Nacional or Mirandela

79%

Draw or Mirandela

49%

Winning margin

Nacional wins by 2+

30%

Mirandela wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Nacional 1+ goals

88%

Nacional 2+ goals

62%

Nacional 3+ goals

35%

Mirandela 1+ goals

78%

Mirandela 2+ goals

45%

Mirandela 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Nacional (draw refunded)

64%

Mirandela (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nacional at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Mirandela away — creates 1.67, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nacional attack 2.20 + Mirandela defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.10

Mirandela attack 1.67 + Nacional defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Nacional scores more

51%

level

21%

Mirandela scores more

28%

Nacional at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Nacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff