Nacional 1–2 Maritimo: Result & Stats

Nacional

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Maritimo

3/12/2021

Primeira Liga · Round 23Estádio da Madeira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Nacional43%

×Draw26%

Maritimo31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NacionalExpected goals in this matchMaritimo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.15

Nacional

1.40

Maritimo

1.15

Nacional creates 22% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 86 away

1.13

creates per match

0.79

1.50

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Nacional

1.13

Maritimo

0.79

allows per match

Nacional

1.50

Maritimo

1.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nacional+0.00on par

Maritimo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nacional ↓

Maritimo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Nacional or draw

69%

Nacional or Maritimo

74%

Draw or Maritimo

57%

Winning margin

Nacional wins by 2+

20%

Maritimo wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Nacional 1+ goals

75%

Nacional 2+ goals

41%

Nacional 3+ goals

17%

Maritimo 1+ goals

68%

Maritimo 2+ goals

32%

Maritimo 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Nacional (draw refunded)

58%

Maritimo (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nacional at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.50 · 68 matches

Maritimo away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.66 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nacional attack 1.13 + Maritimo defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.40

Maritimo attack 0.79 + Nacional defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Nacional scores more

43%

level

26%

Maritimo scores more

31%

Nacional at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Nacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff