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Nacional vs Estudiantes — Division di Honor 2019

Nacional
Nacional
FT
10 – 1
HT: 4 – 0
Estudiantes
Estudiantes
5/12/2026Division di HonorDivision di Honor · Relegation round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Nacional77%
×Draw12%
Estudiantes11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nacional
3.55
Estudiantes
1.32

Nacional creates 169% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 5 away

creates per match

Nacional
3.10
Estudiantes
1.00

allows per match

Nacional
1.65
Estudiantes
4.00

finishing

Nacional+0.00on par
Estudiantes+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nacional ↓

Estudiantes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–14%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–17%
4–25%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 76% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
70%30%4.5
50%50%

Double chance

Nacional or draw
89%
Nacional or Estudiantes
88%
Draw or Estudiantes
23%

Winning margin

Nacional wins by 2+
59%
Estudiantes wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Nacional 1+ goals
97%
Nacional 2+ goals
86%
Nacional 3+ goals
67%
Estudiantes 1+ goals
73%
Estudiantes 2+ goals
38%
Estudiantes 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Nacional (draw refunded)
88%
Estudiantes (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nacional at home — creates 3.10, concedes 1.65 · 60 matches

Estudiantes away — creates 1.00, concedes 4.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nacional attack 3.10 + Estudiantes defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 3.55

Estudiantes attack 1.00 + Nacional defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Nacional scores more
77%
level
12%
Estudiantes scores more
11%

Nacional at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Nacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nacional vs Estudiantes

Nacional beat Estudiantes 10-1 in Division di Honor on May 12, 2026.