Nacional vs Cova De Piedade — Segunda Liga 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 46+ matches
Nacional57%
Cova De Piedade19%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Nacional creates 99% more chances
Season form · 63 home / 46 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under53
- Over47
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No53
- Yes47
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Nacional ↓
Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Nacional at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.90 · 63 matches
Cova De Piedade away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.63 · 46 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Nacional attack 1.79 + Cova De Piedade defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.71
Cova De Piedade attack 0.83 + Nacional defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.86
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 57%?"
Nacional at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 57% does not mean "Nacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Pacos Ferreira
Famalicao
Estoril
Benfica B
Academica
SC Covilha
Leixoes
Penafiel
FC Porto B
Farense
Academico Viseu
OliveirenseCova De Piedade
Mafra
Varzim
Arouca
SC Braga B
Guimaraes BIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Nacional host Cova De Piedade on Sunday, 17 May 2020 at 15:00. The match is part of the Segunda Liga 2018/2019 season.
Preview: Nacional host Cova De Piedade
May 17, 2020: Nacional take on Cova De Piedade in Segunda Liga. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.
Nacional host Cova De Piedade at Estádio da Madeira.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.