Nacional 2–3 Bubali: Result & Stats

Nacional

FT

2 – 3

Bubali

10/28/2023

Division di Honor · Round 4Compleho Deportivo Frans Figaroa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Nacional65%

×Draw16%

Bubali19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NacionalExpected goals in this matchBubali

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.17

1.71

Nacional

3.17

Bubali

1.71

Nacional creates 85% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 30 away

3.10

creates per match

1.77

1.65

allows per match

3.23

creates per match

Nacional

3.10

Bubali

1.77

allows per match

Nacional

1.65

Bubali

3.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nacional+0.00on par

Bubali+0.00on par

Total goals

Over86
Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes78
No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nacional ↓

Bubali →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–03%

1–14%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–03%

4–16%

4–25%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

86%14%3.5

70%30%4.5

52%48%

Double chance

Nacional or draw

81%

Nacional or Bubali

84%

Draw or Bubali

35%

Winning margin

Nacional wins by 2+

46%

Bubali wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Nacional 1+ goals

96%

Nacional 2+ goals

82%

Nacional 3+ goals

60%

Bubali 1+ goals

82%

Bubali 2+ goals

51%

Bubali 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Nacional (draw refunded)

78%

Bubali (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

74%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nacional at home — creates 3.10, concedes 1.65 · 60 matches

Bubali away — creates 1.77, concedes 3.23 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nacional attack 3.10 + Bubali defence 3.23 → ÷2 → 3.17

Bubali attack 1.77 + Nacional defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Nacional scores more

65%

level

16%

Bubali scores more

19%

Nacional at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Nacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff