Nacional vs Benfica — Primeira Liga 2010
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 28+ matches
Nacional25%
Benfica51%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Benfica creates 54% more chances
Season form · 28 home / 42 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under50
- Over50
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes52
- No48
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Nacional ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Nacional at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.32 · 28 matches
Benfica away — creates 1.92, concedes 0.98 · 42 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Nacional attack 1.12 + Benfica defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.05
Benfica attack 1.92 + Nacional defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.62
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 51%?"
Benfica at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 51% does not mean "Benfica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Benfica substitutes
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
FC Porto
Sporting CPBenfica
SC Braga
Famalicao
GIL Vicente
Moreirense
Guimaraes
Arouca
Estoril
Alverca
Santa Clara
Rio AveNacional
Casa Pia
Estrela
Tondela
AVS
TorreenseIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Nacional host Benfica on Thursday, 19 December 2024 at 17:00. The match is part of the Primeira Liga 2010/2011 season.
Match Recap: Nacional vs Benfica
Benfica beat Nacional 2-0 in Primeira Liga on December 19, 2024.
Goals: Á. Di María (59' pen, 74').
Benfica controlled possession (67%) and registered 16 shots to 5.
The match was played at Estádio da Madeira in Ilha da Madeira.