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Nacional SP vs Taquaritinga — League #1062 2026

Nacional SP
Nacional SP
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Taquaritinga
Taquaritinga
Paolo 45+2' (pen)
Lucas Duarte 4'
2/28/2024League #1062League #1062 · 1st Phase - 8Estádio Nicolau Alayon

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Nacional SP18%
×Draw28%
Taquaritinga54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nacional SP
0.67
Taquaritinga
1.38

Taquaritinga creates 106% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 4 away

creates per match

Nacional SP
0.83
Taquaritinga
1.75

allows per match

Nacional SP
1.00
Taquaritinga
0.50

finishing

Nacional SP+0.00on par
Taquaritinga+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nacional SP ↓

Taquaritinga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–118%
0–212%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–14%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Nacional SP or draw
46%
Nacional SP or Taquaritinga
72%
Draw or Taquaritinga
82%

Winning margin

Nacional SP wins by 2+
5%
Taquaritinga wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Nacional SP 1+ goals
49%
Nacional SP 2+ goals
15%
Nacional SP 3+ goals
3%
Taquaritinga 1+ goals
75%
Taquaritinga 2+ goals
40%
Taquaritinga 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Nacional SP (draw refunded)
25%
Taquaritinga (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nacional SP at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.00 · 18 matches

Taquaritinga away — creates 1.75, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nacional SP attack 0.83 + Taquaritinga defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.67

Taquaritinga attack 1.75 + Nacional SP defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Nacional SP scores more
18%
level
28%
Taquaritinga scores more
54%

Taquaritinga at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Taquaritinga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
Lucas Duarte
45+2'
PaoloPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nacional SP vs Taquaritinga

Nacional SP and Taquaritinga drew 1-1 in League #1062 on February 28, 2024.

Goals: Lucas Duarte (4'), Paolo (45+2' pen).

The match was played at Estádio Nicolau Alayon in São Paulo, São Paulo.