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Nacional SP vs Penapolense — League #1062 2026

Nacional SP
Nacional SP
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Penapolense
Penapolense
Unknown 45+1' (pen)
Unknown 65'
2/3/2024League #1062League #1062 · 1st Phase - 2Estádio Nicolau Alayon

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Nacional SP21%
×Draw28%
Penapolense50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nacional SP
0.75
Penapolense
1.33

Penapolense creates 77% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 3 away

creates per match

Nacional SP
0.83
Penapolense
1.67

allows per match

Nacional SP
1.00
Penapolense
0.67

finishing

Nacional SP+0.00on par
Penapolense+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nacional SP ↓

Penapolense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–117%
0–211%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Nacional SP or draw
50%
Nacional SP or Penapolense
72%
Draw or Penapolense
79%

Winning margin

Nacional SP wins by 2+
6%
Penapolense wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Nacional SP 1+ goals
53%
Nacional SP 2+ goals
17%
Nacional SP 3+ goals
4%
Penapolense 1+ goals
74%
Penapolense 2+ goals
38%
Penapolense 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Nacional SP (draw refunded)
29%
Penapolense (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nacional SP at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.00 · 18 matches

Penapolense away — creates 1.67, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nacional SP attack 0.83 + Penapolense defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.75

Penapolense attack 1.67 + Nacional SP defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Nacional SP scores more
21%
level
28%
Penapolense scores more
50%

Penapolense at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Penapolense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+1'
Penalty
65'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #1062: Nacional SP 1–1 Penapolense

Nacional SP and Penapolense drew 1-1 in League #1062 on February 3, 2024.

Goals: ? (45+1' pen, 65').

The match was played at Estádio Nicolau Alayon in São Paulo, São Paulo.