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Nacional SP U20 vs Portuguesa U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Nacional SP U20
Nacional SP U20
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Portuguesa U20
Portuguesa U20
4/19/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 2Estádio Nicolau Alayon

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Nacional SP U2037%
×Draw28%
Portuguesa U2035%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nacional SP U20
1.19
Portuguesa U20
1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 16 away

creates per match

Nacional SP U20
1.00
Portuguesa U20
1.31

allows per match

Nacional SP U20
1.00
Portuguesa U20
1.38

finishing

Nacional SP U20+0.00on par
Portuguesa U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 58Over: 4258%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 52Yes: 4852%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nacional SP U20 ↓

Portuguesa U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Nacional SP U20 or draw
65%
Nacional SP U20 or Portuguesa U20
72%
Draw or Portuguesa U20
63%

Winning margin

Nacional SP U20 wins by 2+
16%
Portuguesa U20 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Nacional SP U20 1+ goals
70%
Nacional SP U20 2+ goals
33%
Nacional SP U20 3+ goals
12%
Portuguesa U20 1+ goals
69%
Portuguesa U20 2+ goals
32%
Portuguesa U20 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Nacional SP U20 (draw refunded)
51%
Portuguesa U20 (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nacional SP U20 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Portuguesa U20 away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.38 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nacional SP U20 attack 1.00 + Portuguesa U20 defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.19

Portuguesa U20 attack 1.31 + Nacional SP U20 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Nacional SP U20 scores more
37%
level
28%
Portuguesa U20 scores more
35%

Nacional SP U20 at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Nacional SP U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

76'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: Nacional SP U20 0–0 Portuguesa U20

Nacional SP U20 and Portuguesa U20 drew 0-0 in Paulista - U20 on April 19, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Nicolau Alayon in São Paulo, São Paulo.