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Nacional Potosí vs Vaca Díez — Primera División 2019

Nacional Potosí
Nacional Potosí
FT
6 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Vaca Díez
Vaca Díez
8/5/2023Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 22Estadio Víctor Agustín Ugarte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Nacional Potosí65%
×Draw19%
Vaca Díez16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nacional Potosí
2.33
Vaca Díez
1.06

Nacional Potosí creates 120% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 16 away

creates per match

Nacional Potosí
2.23
Vaca Díez
1.00

allows per match

Nacional Potosí
1.12
Vaca Díez
2.44

finishing

Nacional Potosí+0.00on par
Vaca Díez+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nacional Potosí ↓

Vaca Díez →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Nacional Potosí or draw
84%
Nacional Potosí or Vaca Díez
81%
Draw or Vaca Díez
35%

Winning margin

Nacional Potosí wins by 2+
43%
Vaca Díez wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Nacional Potosí 1+ goals
90%
Nacional Potosí 2+ goals
67%
Nacional Potosí 3+ goals
41%
Vaca Díez 1+ goals
65%
Vaca Díez 2+ goals
29%
Vaca Díez 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Nacional Potosí (draw refunded)
80%
Vaca Díez (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nacional Potosí at home — creates 2.23, concedes 1.12 · 129 matches

Vaca Díez away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.44 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nacional Potosí attack 2.23 + Vaca Díez defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.33

Vaca Díez attack 1.00 + Nacional Potosí defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Nacional Potosí scores more
65%
level
19%
Vaca Díez scores more
16%

Nacional Potosí at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Nacional Potosí will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Nacional Potosí 6–1 Vaca Díez

Nacional Potosí beat Vaca Díez 6-1 in Primera División on August 5, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Víctor Agustín Ugarte in Potosí.