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Nacional Potosí vs Sport Boys — Primera División 2019

Nacional Potosí
Nacional Potosí
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sport Boys
Sport Boys
8/10/2019Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 7Estadio Victor Agustín Ugarte (Potosí)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Nacional Potosí65%
×Draw19%
Sport Boys16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nacional Potosí
2.24
Sport Boys
1.00

Nacional Potosí creates 124% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 25 away

creates per match

Nacional Potosí
2.23
Sport Boys
0.88

allows per match

Nacional Potosí
1.12
Sport Boys
2.24

finishing

Nacional Potosí+0.00on par
Sport Boys+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nacional Potosí ↓

Sport Boys →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Nacional Potosí or draw
84%
Nacional Potosí or Sport Boys
81%
Draw or Sport Boys
35%

Winning margin

Nacional Potosí wins by 2+
42%
Sport Boys wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Nacional Potosí 1+ goals
89%
Nacional Potosí 2+ goals
65%
Nacional Potosí 3+ goals
38%
Sport Boys 1+ goals
63%
Sport Boys 2+ goals
26%
Sport Boys 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Nacional Potosí (draw refunded)
81%
Sport Boys (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nacional Potosí at home — creates 2.23, concedes 1.12 · 129 matches

Sport Boys away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.24 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nacional Potosí attack 2.23 + Sport Boys defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 2.24

Sport Boys attack 0.88 + Nacional Potosí defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Nacional Potosí scores more
65%
level
19%
Sport Boys scores more
16%

Nacional Potosí at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Nacional Potosí will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nacional Potosí vs Sport Boys

Nacional Potosí and Sport Boys drew 1-1 in Primera División on August 10, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Victor Agustín Ugarte (Potosí).