Nacional Potosí 1–0 Santa Cruz: Result & Stats

Nacional Potosí

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Santa Cruz

Miyhel Ortiz 29'

5/18/2024

Primera División · Clausura - 2Estadio Víctor Agustín Ugarte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Nacional Potosí65%

×Draw19%

Santa Cruz16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nacional PotosíExpected goals in this matchSanta Cruz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.24

1.01

Nacional Potosí

2.24

Santa Cruz

1.01

Nacional Potosí creates 122% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 83 away

2.23

creates per match

0.90

1.12

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

Nacional Potosí

2.23

Santa Cruz

0.90

allows per match

Nacional Potosí

1.12

Santa Cruz

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nacional Potosí+0.00on par

Santa Cruz+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nacional Potosí ↓

Santa Cruz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–24%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Nacional Potosí or draw

84%

Nacional Potosí or Santa Cruz

81%

Draw or Santa Cruz

35%

Winning margin

Nacional Potosí wins by 2+

42%

Santa Cruz wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Nacional Potosí 1+ goals

89%

Nacional Potosí 2+ goals

65%

Nacional Potosí 3+ goals

38%

Santa Cruz 1+ goals

64%

Santa Cruz 2+ goals

27%

Santa Cruz 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Nacional Potosí (draw refunded)

80%

Santa Cruz (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nacional Potosí at home — creates 2.23, concedes 1.12 · 129 matches

Santa Cruz away — creates 0.90, concedes 2.25 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nacional Potosí attack 2.23 + Santa Cruz defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.24

Santa Cruz attack 0.90 + Nacional Potosí defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Nacional Potosí scores more

65%

level

19%

Santa Cruz scores more

16%

Nacional Potosí at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Nacional Potosí will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

B. López

Santa Cruz · D

7.5

Match Events

29'

Miyhel Ortiz↳ Ó. Añez

34'

Samuel Galindo

38'

Brian Hinojosa

43'

J. Guerra← Miyhel Ortiz

45+2'

Samuel Galindo

45+2'

Samuel Galindo

46'

H. Leaños← Ó. Añez

46'

Ángel Sánchez← A. Treminio

46'

J. Lara← L. Condarco

46'

I. Cárdenas← B. Hinojosa

61'

F. Saldías← W. Antelo

62'

W. Álvarez← F. Callejo

73'

L. Pavia← M. Andia

74'

P. Azogue← S. Guerra

83'

A. Navia← M. Ovando

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NacionalSanta

Overview

65%Possession35%

19Total Shots12

13Corners6

9Fouls9

Shots

19Total Shots12

6On Target2

9Off Target6

4Blocked4

11Inside Box6

8Outside Box6

Passing

65%Possession35%

470Total Passes242

404Accurate Passes167

86%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

9Fouls9

2Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0

3Offsides0